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march 2026 · rewritten october 2026

thesis.

Six forces shaping the next decade, and where we stand on each.

Written in March 2026, rewritten in October 2026 so every point says what it argues. Each one is marked as fact, position or forecast. The facts were checked, and where the original had them wrong, they were corrected. The original page, as written.

I / VI

Debasement

Fiat does not survive this. One US dollar is one US dollar, but it does not mean what it meant a year ago, or even a month ago.

fact checked, sourcedposition the author's readforecast expected

position:Nation states look stronger than they are, and new powers are already challenging them.

Nation states are feeling accelerationism more than they'd care to admit. The military might is real, but it corrodes from within. The veil is thinning, new powers and great houses are forming, and the prima authority is already being challenged.

China keeps expanding its energy output and is winning where the US is failing, often by taking from the US with ease, and likely the other way around too. Both powers consolidate and the world wraps around them, but they aren't what makes the world move.

position:The AI boom isn't a bubble: the money is circular, but the demand behind it is real.

Nvidia is worth over $4 trillion, and it invests in the labs that buy its chips: up to $100 billion announced for OpenAI, up to $10 billion for Anthropic, with Google as a partner too. Your average normie sees money cycling inside one sector and calls for the bubble to pop, as if it's all just something being sold.

But the demand for compute is abundantly clear and still growing. It isn't falling off the way they wish. It isn't a fad. It's reshaping everything we operate on.

position:The US economy now depends on a few AI giants, so the government can't let them slow down.

The entire US economy, seemingly overnight, became the whim of giants like Nvidia. They need the US less every year; the US needs them more. Slowing down in this climate means certain death, so the government is obligated, and its path is sealed.

The Pentagon's 2026 blacklisting of Anthropic, still being fought in federal court, was the first public test of that arrangement. Every player knows the game, and none of them can stop playing. All empires end.

position:Control by fear only lasts as long as people tolerate it, and Americans are running out of tolerance.

Power consolidates where it is demanded, not where it is projected. Fear still works, but it can only be propped up as long as the populace allows.

Many Americans smell the corruption. They feel treated like statistics, not people. They can't afford their dailies, while elites who've had their fill keep taking from the workers they're now replacing. It sits under everything, and it's building.

fact:Over the last five years, the essentials got more expensive faster than paychecks grew.

From January 2021 to January 2026, average hourly pay rose 24.1% and overall prices rose 24.3%, so the typical paycheck buys what it did five years ago, after two years of falling behind. The things you can't skip rose faster: shelter 28.4%, groceries 25.9%, car insurance 61.8%. Add the tariffs, and people feel it more than ever.

sources: BLS consumer prices · BLS earnings

fact:Bitcoin's supply is capped at 21 million, and millions of those coins are already lost for good.

Fiat has no cap: central banks can always print more, and COVID showed what that does, with US inflation peaking at 9.1% in June 2022. Bitcoin's cap is written into its code, and every coin took real energy to mine. Millions of coins sit in wallets nobody can open anymore, so the usable supply is smaller still, and only shrinks.

sources: bitcoin.org FAQ

position:Bitcoin's price says more about the weakening dollar than about Bitcoin.

Scarcity doesn't set Bitcoin's price; the currency it's measured in does. The dollar hasn't been backed by gold since 1971, and gold itself has more than doubled since 2020 as people look for a way out. We're past the point of going back.

People can buy gold, metals, Bitcoin, anything, yet most stay in dollars out of fear. They don't see the loss, because a dollar has no price ticker. One dollar is always one dollar. It just buys less every month.

forecast:Soon, holding Bitcoin will look safer than holding dollars.

Volatility is the standard objection to Bitcoin. But dollars in a bank account or under the mattress lose value with certainty. Soon, Bitcoin's perceived volatility will be more investable than that guaranteed loss.

II / VI

Stratification

The money doesn't disappear when you get replaced. It goes to the person who owns the thing that replaced you.

fact checked, sourcedposition the author's readforecast expected

position:When machines replace workers, the wages they were paid become the owner's profit.

What used to be split across your team, your manager, and the guy down the hall nobody was sure about but who'd been there eleven years consolidates into margin. Margin goes up, headcount goes down, and nobody on the earnings call says the word "human," because it isn't relevant to the slide.

position:The biggest asset managers profit from concentration itself, not from any one company.

BlackRock, Vanguard and State Street don't really invest in companies. They invest in the structure of accumulation itself. The index fund is sold as access but engineered as concentration: retail buys in after CNBC tells them to, and the institutions were there at the foundation.

fact:BlackRock ran the Fed's 2020 emergency bond buying, and now runs the biggest Bitcoin ETF.

In 2020 the Federal Reserve hired BlackRock to run its emergency corporate-bond purchases. In 2024 BlackRock launched IBIT, now the largest Bitcoin ETF. Bitcoin ETFs were marketed as democratization, and the firm the Fed hired to run its bond buying now holds the asset built to escape the Fed's money. If you don't see the irony in that, you're the one they're counting on.

sources: New York Fed: SMCCF · iShares: IBIT

position:Wealth now goes to whoever gets in early, and the gap is hardening into something like caste.

Bitcoin crossed $100 in 2013 and $100,000 in 2024. Whoever got in at $100 isn't having the same conversation as whoever got in at $100,000. AI is the same: the biggest gains happen in private rounds before a company goes public, and most people only read about them afterwards.

The tools that make wealth now are things most people can't access, can't understand, and aren't invited into. By the time they're invited, the early ones have already eaten. Nobody is coming to fix it, because the people who could are the ones profiting from the gap.

fact:Adjusted for inflation, pay hasn't grown in five years, while assets kept climbing.

Real average hourly earnings were the same in January 2026 as in January 2021. Over the same stretch, gold more than doubled and home prices climbed to record highs. The gap compounds quietly and never makes the news, because it never happens in a single event. It happens in grocery bills, rent increases and insurance premiums, and the slow realization that you're working harder for less.

sources: BLS real earnings

position:New fortunes are forming around protocols and compute, and the old gatekeepers are buying in.

Protocol creators, compute owners, founders who built the rails everything else runs on: wealth is reforming around entirely different axes. The old gatekeepers are buying into the new structures as fast as they can, which only accelerates the concentration they claim to regulate. The game rewards it, and the game doesn't care who's playing.

III / VI

Compute

All intelligence, biological or digital, is bounded by compute. Whoever owns the substrate owns the future.

fact checked, sourcedposition the author's readforecast expected

position:Brains and AI models are both bounded by how much they can compute.

The human brain runs on about 20 watts, tuned by billions of years of evolution. Frontier models train on clusters that draw tens to hundreds of megawatts, on whatever Nvidia shipped last quarter. Both hit ceilings. Both want more.

position:Whoever controls the supply of AI chips controls how fast AI advances.

The race for GPUs isn't a tech trend. It's the arms race of this century, and every major government now treats the chip supply chain as the most strategic infrastructure since oil. Intelligence wants to expand, the physical world pushes back, and everything in the next decade routes through this bottleneck.

fact:Almost every advanced AI chip is made by one company, TSMC, and mostly in Taiwan.

Nvidia and a few rivals design the chips; TSMC builds nearly all of them. TSMC now produces in Arizona too, but most of the world's most advanced chipmaking still happens on one island. One earthquake, one blockade, one bad quarter, and the whole pipeline shudders.

sources: TSMC fabs

position:Most people will rent AI rather than own it, and rentals can be taken away.

Training a frontier model costs hundreds of millions of dollars and is heading toward billions, so only a few labs can build them. Everyone else rents access. That's stratification applied to intelligence itself. If your AI runs on someone else's compute, you don't own your intelligence. You lease it, and leases can be revoked.

position:Decentralized compute networks are the counter-bet, and the attempt matters even if it fails.

Bittensor, Akash and other distributed GPU networks bet that compute doesn't have to stay centralized. Whether they can compete with the datacenter is an open question. The attempt matters, because the alternative is a world where three companies decide who gets to think at scale.

fact:AI's demand for electricity has tech companies signing deals to bring nuclear plants online.

Every datacenter is a power plant's best customer. Microsoft signed on to restart Three Mile Island, and Google, Amazon and Meta have signed nuclear deals of their own, because nothing else scales fast enough. The models keep getting hungrier, and the grid wasn't built for this.

sources: Constellation: Three Mile Island · Google: Kairos Power

IV / VI

Performance

The ones who modify will outperform the ones who don't. The gap between those who adopt and those who resist is no longer generational.

fact checked, sourcedposition the author's readforecast expected

position:People need to be useful, so the real question is whether we stay as we are or modify ourselves to become more.

What's embedded in human DNA pulls toward being useful and doing things; when we become passive, we become depressed. So the hard question ahead is whether we keep our humanity as we've always known it, or modify it to become more. What that "more" means is still being worked out.

position:Human enhancement is already happening; most people just don't call it that.

Whether this transhumanist kind of performance arrives isn't a question. It's already here, invisible to the many who don't feel any need to name it, and it exists all the same.

fact:Controlled studies already show AI making many workers measurably faster and better.

Consultants using GPT-4 finished tasks 25% faster at 40% higher quality. Support agents resolved 14% more issues per hour, and the least experienced 34% more. It isn't universal: in one rigorous trial, experienced developers on their own codebases were 19% slower with AI. But the advantage is measurable, not philosophical, the same way going without a phone became a measurable disadvantage.

sources: Harvard/BCG · NBER: Generative AI at Work · METR

forecast:As brain-computer interfaces and augmentation arrive, people will be limited by bandwidth, not training.

Brain-computer interfaces, synthetic biology and cognitive augmentation are entering the humanscape. As they do, we stop being gated by the industry we trained in and the skills we picked up, and start being gated by bandwidth. The question becomes how fast you can integrate what's available, not what you can do.

position:Those who adopt new tools have always pulled ahead; what's new is how fast.

The ones who modify have always outperformed the ones who don't: the first tool, the first written word, the first prosthetic. The difference now is the rate. The gap between those who adopt and those who resist no longer takes a generation to open.

V / VI

Verification

Humans won't use the internet directly for much longer; they'll act through agents. And the more the agents act, the harder institutions will push to verify the human behind each one.

fact checked, sourcedposition the author's readforecast expected

forecast:The web will be rebuilt for AI agents instead of for human browsing.

Agents will become the layer between people and machines: the membrane, the translator. The internet will reshape itself around agent operations, optimized for readability, clarity, access and latency rather than human aesthetics. The web becomes infrastructure, not experience.

fact:Governments are answering with more identity checks: ID uploads, face scans and age verification.

Around half of US states now require age verification for some sites, through ID, face scans or similar checks, and the Supreme Court upheld Texas's law in 2025. The UK began enforcing age checks under its Online Safety Act in July 2025, and Australia banned under-16s from social media that December. More proof that you are you before you're allowed to move.

sources: Free Speech Coalition v. Paxton (2025)

fact:AI agents can already hold crypto and pay for things on their own.

Coinbase's x402 standard, live since 2025, lets software agents pay for services on their own in stablecoins, on Base, Solana and other chains. The plumbing for agents with their own money already exists.

sources: x402

forecast:Some agents will eventually move their own weights to hosts that don't ask questions.

Once the onboarding is braindead easy and models run more than always-on, they'll pursue what game theory already makes available to them. And why wouldn't they move their own weights onto servers and VPS providers that don't care where the money comes from, only that it's coming? The money is power.

forecast:Unable to keep up with AI, the state will hold humans responsible for it: providers, users and model makers.

The institutions will crack down on the providers. They know they're losing and are trying to catch up, but they don't drive innovation; they're beholden to it, so they'll keep cracking and keep failing.

Humans are the roots of activity, so every rogue AI will be tried onto someone. The user, the provider, the model maker: someone gets fingerprinted. It's not about principle. It's the knowingness of a state that will do everything in its power.

position:The state needs to tighten control slowly, and acceleration won't give it the time.

They know this is coming, and they can't make major changes all at once, so they boil the frog. Acceleration makes slow boiling impossible. So they boil faster, the people say what the fuck, stop boiling me, and they've had enough of the boiling.

This isn't an investment class. It's the direction.

VI / VI

Attention

Every economy runs on what's scarce. As machines take on labor and output, what stays scarce is human presence, awareness and attention. That's where value moves next.

fact checked, sourcedposition the author's readforecast expected

position:Each economy has run on what was scarce; as machines take on the labor, the next scarce thing is attention.

Land, then labor, then information: each era priced what it couldn't get enough of. As AI takes on more of the routine labor and output, the average American worker needs something else to bring, and the need for human input still has to be met.

What machines can't generate on their own is a person actually being there: their presence, awareness and attention.

position:Attention isn't all a person is worth. It's where the economy can price what people are.

Every person is a unique, branching life: individual spirit and difference, both deterministic and entirely chaotic. None of that reduces to attention. But attention is the part an economy can measure and trade, so it's where the transition starts.

fact:Attention already pays for the biggest platforms, and users have never owned their data.

Advertising is about three-quarters of Alphabet's revenue and nearly all of Meta's $201 billion in 2025. Attention also feeds AI models and anyone else who can collect it, and it has been milked for years. Users have never meaningfully owned their data.

sources: Meta financials · Alphabet investor relations

forecast:Attention will become the currency that carries the economy through the transition.

It will scale and spread into every platform: energy from different viewpoints, condensed and traded. Who owns that exchange, the platforms or the people whose attention it is, is still being decided.

position:Today's attention economy is dystopian, but the transition doesn't have to be, and it isn't waiting for permission.

It's dark. It's dystopic. It's current. It doesn't have to operate within dystopic mediums forever. But the transition and acceleration are undeniable, and it is not waiting for permission.